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| Probability Density Function and Prediction of Wind Power Variations |
| Qiuli Gao, Chidao Yuan, Zhengren Zuo, Yuan Feng, Cihang Gai |
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Abstract Variation is an intrinsic property of wind power. It has been proved
that generalized Pareto distribution is suitable to identify the
probability distribution of wind power variations after mass field
measurements. And analysis shows that distribution of wind power is
leptokurtic and rightward skewed. Based on its distribution
character, this paper first adopts the wavelet analysis technique to
denoise the probability distribution of wind power variation and
then applies BP Artificial Neural Networks to achieve short-term
rolling forecast of the variation whose precision is up to 76.27\%.
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| DOI:10.12733/jics20104306 |
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